Forecast Based on
A lot of excitement here this morning. Intense convection sprung up in western KS this morning around 10z. Within a half hour, the top of the cell measured 207 K. As the morning progressed, more cells popped up toward the east ahead of this main cell. The convection was heading due east toward Salina. The radar was showing tops of 50,000 ft, hail, and a meso cyclone for one of the cells. The line of convection was just south of Salina and Russel. With strong surface convergence in the lower levels and a strong southerly jet, severe convection broke out along a warm front just south of Salina.
A surface low is centered over the panhandle of TX/OK and sw KS. The winds are southeasterly and increasing. Overhead, anvil cirrus covers most of the sky, and it is dark to the southwest.
The water vapor loop shows a moist tongue extending from the southwest over OK and the CART site. There is a dry slot to the west of this moist tongue; therefore, drying conditions in the upper troposphere are expected as the day progresses.
Tomorrow a shortwave is analyzed over KS and northern OK. This shortwave may allow cirrus to advect in or to form over the CART site.
00Z 04 May - 12Z 04 May: Partly cloudy. Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Winds northeasterly at 5-15 kts.
12z 04 May - 12Z 05 May: A chance for thunderstorms mainly during the early morning and late afternoon hours. Partly cloudy. High lower/mid 70s. Northeast winds at 10-20 kts. Chance for thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s.
The MRF and ECMWF are both trying to pick up that cut off low in the Pacific and bring it into the westerly flow. If this verifies, a trough will set up along the west coast, leaving KS on the front side of it. OK/KS could see some good cirrus and persistent contrails.
This type of pattern could also lead to severe weather in KS depending on where the surface low, associated fronts, and upper level jet are located.
Walker and Mace