SUCCESS 48 hour Meteorological Forecast

12z 30 April 1996

Forecast Based on

Synopsis


The longwave trough is positioned over the Mississippi Valley. The backside of the trough is stretched from the Pacific Northwest down to the bottom of the trough over Louisiana/Alabama. The winds aloft are 100 kts over Salina and the CART site. Within the flow at 500 mb are several shortwaves over CO, KS, and NE. Associated with these shortwaves are mid and high level clouds. The cirrus is not as extensive as previously thought over OK.

As the cold front progressed eastward across the South and Gulf, high pressure built in over TX. With off shore flow along the TX coast, clear skies prevail.

Northwestly flow through the depth of the atmosphere and moisture advecting in from the west has lead to wave clouds over the San Cristo Range in NM.

Prog Discussion


The upper level flow will remain unchanged over the midwest throughout today and tomorrow. The longwave trough over the Mississippi Valley will flatten and move eastward. Several shortwave impulses will move through the upper level flow over NE, KS, and OK.

Convection south/southeast of Brownsville, TX is looking promising for tomorrow as a weak shortwave moves over the area. At the surface, the pressure gradient is weak, with a weak surface low is analyzed over this region. With this type of surface flow and some upper level support, convection could spring up.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 30 Apr - 00Z 01 Apr: Partly cloudy, with 20% chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds at 5-15 kts becoming northwesterly in the afternoon at 10-20 kts.

00Z 01 Apr - 12Z 01 Apr: Mostly clear. Low around 40. Northwest wind 5-15 kts.

12z 01 Apr - 12Z 02 Apr: Partly cloudy. High around 70. Northwest wind 5-15 kts becoming west by afternoon.

Extended Range Discussion:


12z 02 Apr - 12Z 03 Apr: Dry and mild. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 70s.

After Wed. the upper level flow will become more zonal as the trough to the east weakens and moves off shore. By Saturday, both the MRF and ECMWF start to deepen a trough over the western states.

Walker and Mace

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