SUCCESS 48 hour Meteorological Forecast

12z 23 April 1996

Forecast Based on

Synopsis


A tightly wound up surface low in the Gulf of Alaska is associated with a strong shortwave and upper level jet on the Pacific Northwest coast. Plently of mid and upper level moisture exists with this feature. Cirrus is spilling over the ridge which is ahead of the Pacific trough into ID, MT, and WY. With these conditions, wave clouds are expected to form along the Front Range and over Medicine Bow.

Over Kansas, high pressure has built in. The winds are light, and the skies are blue.

Prog Discussion


As the Pacific Northwest shortwave moves on shore and into the Rockies, the ridge will progress eastward and start to deamplify. By 00Z Thu 25, the 500 mb flow will almost be zonal. At the surface, the high will slide down into Texas and the Gulf. As the shortwave moves eastward, a surface low forms in the northern Plains with a trough forming in the lee of the Rockies.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 23 Apr - 00Z 24 Apr: Sunny skies with thin upper level clouds increasing toward the evening. Highs in the 70s. Winds southerly 10 kts.

00Z 24 Apr - 12Z 24 Apr: Increasing cirrus. Lows in the lower 50s. Winds out of the south 10-15 kts.

12z 24 Apr - 12Z 25 Apr: Partly cloudy. Cirrus will vary in cover and thickness. Warm and windy: upper 70's, southwestly winds 20+ kts.

Extended Range Discussion:


12z 25 Apr - 12Z 26 Apr: Trough will form over the midwest. After cold frontal passage on morning of 25th, temperatures will taper by 10 or more degrees. The winds will be out of the northwest at 15-20 kts. Some mid level clouds.

Walker and Mace

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