SUCCESS 48 hour Meteorological Forecast

12z 19 April 1996

Forecast based on

Synopsis


A strong zonal jet extending eastward from the Pacific coast into the Mississippi valley continues to be the dominant feature influencing the weather over the central plains. A series of fast moving and rather vigorous shortwave impulses are moving through the flow with the eastern-most of these causing cyclogenesis over Nebraska and Kansas this morning. Upstream, a shortwave impulse is approaching the northern California coast. Satellite imagery shows that the zonal flow is rather dry with primarily mid and low level cloudiness in the vicinity of the strongest dynamical forcing. A vigorous westerly wind is setting up over the central plains as the surface low deepens in Nebraska and Kansas.

Prog Discussion


Cyclogenesis will continue over the Plains as the low in Nebraska and Kansas moves eastward today. Central Kansas and Northern Oklahoma will experience strong southwesterly winds in an extremely tight pressure gradient in the lower levels. The shortwave entering western North America will cause height falls throughout the southwestern United States and spawn surface low pressure near the four corners region during the next 24 hours. Numerical guidance suggests that the upper tropospere will remain dry during the period. Areas of cirrus cloudiness are expected to generate in response to the deepening system in the Southwest, although the extent of this development is uncertain at this time. The mid and lower troposphere will remian dry through the period.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 19 Apr - 00Z 20 Apr: The sky will remain clear and the westerly winds strong throughout the day. Wind speeds will be sustained near 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. High temperatures in the 70's.

00Z 20 Apr - 12Z 20 Apr: Continued clear with diminishing winds. Temperatures are expected fall into the 50's.

12z 20 Apr - 12Z 21 Apr: High clouds are expected in the region during this period as the low in the southwest deepens. Winds will become southerly during the day with speeds less than 20 knots. Temperatures in the low 80's.

Extended Range Discussion:


12z 21 Apr - 12Z 22 Apr: The low in the Southwest will likely generate mid level cloudiness and a chance of precipitation over the region Sunday and Monday as it moves into the southern Plains.

Mace and Walker

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Last Updated: 19 Apr 1996