SUCCESS 48 hour Meteorological Forecast

12z 18 April 1996

Forecast based on

Synopsis


The nose of the jet is entering the TX/OK panhandle. Over KS and OK the upper level winds are 70 kts and should increase to 100 kts by 00 Fri 19. A shortwave is centered over KS/OK and will track to the northeast as the day progresses. The winds have shifted from southerly to northerly in lieu of the early morning frontal passage.

Prog Discussion


All the models agree reasonably well with the placement and strength of the upper level jet. At mid-levels, the ETA and AVN form a shortwave ridge over KS/OK after the shortwave moves to the northeast. The NGM does not resolve this shortwave ridge whose axis is centered over WY/NE border. At the surface, a low will form in western KS in response to a strong upstream shortwave.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 18 - 00Z 19 Apr: A shortwave is over KS/OK and the jet nose is entering the TX/OK panhandle. The shortwave will move to the northeast and a shortwave ridge will form over WY/NE. The day should be sunny and warm. Highs upper 70s. The wind will be northwesterly in the morning changing to westerly by the afternoon, 20 kt or greater with gusts to 30 kts.

00Z 19 Apr - 12Z 19 Apr: A low will form in western KS. The upper level jet will be directly over KS/OK with a jet max of 110. Clear skies with temperatures in the upper 40s can be expected. The winds will decrease and shift becoming more southerly.

12z 19 Apr - 12Z 20 Apr: The surface low will move to N. MO/IL. Highs in the upper 70's and mostly sunny. Some low level moisture is associated with the next shortwave from the west. Mid-level clouds may be contained to the far north/northwest of KS. Westerly winds at 10-15kts.

Extended Range Discussion:


12z 21 Apr - 12Z 22 Apr: Dry and cooler most areas. Highs upper 60s,low 70s. The ECMWF has the zonal upper level wind pattern changing by 12Z Sat. 20 with a ridge building in the west.

Walker and Mace

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