SUCCESS 48 hour Meteorological Forecast

12z 15 April 1996

Forecast based on

Synopsis


Deep low pressure is exiting the area this morning. The low developed as a series of fastmoving shortwaves passed around the base of a trough that moved slowly eastward over the Plains yesterday. A cool northerly flow of air prevails over the plains while high pressure builds from the west. The high amplitude ridge over the Rocky Mountains is moving slowly eastward as several significant impulses aproach the west coast of North America.

Prog Discussion


High pressure will build over the area today causing the northerly winds to diminish and allow temperatures to moderate. As the pacific impulses move onshore this afternoon, the Rocky Mountain ridge will erode and move eastward. With the weakening ridge over the plains and deepening low pressure in the West, high clouds are expected over the region tomorrow. A trough in the lee of the Rockies will deepen tomorrow afternoon resulting in a moderate southerly wind.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 15 Apr - 00Z 16 Apr: Mostly clear today with moderating temperatures and diminishing northerly winds. Expect winds to decrease from 15 knots this morning to 8-10 knots by evening and a high temperature in the mid 50's.

00Z 16 Apr - 12Z 16 Apr: Continued clear with some fog possible by early morning. Winds will be light and variable becoming light southerly by sunrise. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30's.

12z 16 Apr - 12Z 17 Apr: The day should begin cloudless with a light southerly surface wind that will increase in intensity during the day. Thin cirrus are likely by noon. These clouds are expected to thicken during the afternoon. Winds will increase from southerly at 10 knots during the morning to southwesterly 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots during the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the the 70's.

Extended Range Discussion:


12z 17 Apr - 12Z 18 Apr: Strong low pressure will develop in the northern Rockies and approach the plains. Winds aloft will be southwesterly and strong and should supply ample moisture for clouds in the middle and upper troposphere. Surface pressure gradients will increase and winds will be southerly 20 knots gusting to 30-35 knots by afternoon. Thunderstorms are a distinct possibility during this period.

Mace and Walker

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Last Updated: 14 Apr 1996